Friday, February 10, 2012

Maldives Coup

 7 February 2012

Opposition protests culminated in a coup in the Republic of Maldives, forcing Mohammed Nasheed to resign his Presidency. 

The Maldives Police Services attacked leading Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) activists as well as the Maldives National Defense Force (MNDF) Headquarters with tear gas in the early morning hours on Tuesday, February 7, 2012, quelling any MNDF and MDP opposition to the Police driven coup as well as MNDF protections for protesters.

Senior police commanders ordered junior officers to support the coup and provided compensation for doing so. They were compelled to comply with the threat of force and unlawful detention, although one junior officer reported being bribed with 3 Red Bull and 1 chocolate bar.

Police, MNDF, and opposition supporters from the Dhivehi Raiyyithunge Party (DRP), Progressive Party Maldives (PPM), Dhivehi Quamee Party (DQP), Jumhooree Party, and Adhaalath Party then filled Republic Square demanding the resignation of President Mohammed Nasheed by 13:30. President Nasheed was forcibly “escorted” by an MNDF officer to announce his resignation approximately an hour before this deadline.  Police also supplied gave riot protection gear and vehicles to the opposition protestors.

This was done to protect the safety and security of Maldivian citizens. He wanted to avoid violence and chaos gripping the Nation. "I believe if I continue as the President of the Maldives, the people of the country would suffer more. I therefore have resigned as the President of Maldives. I wish the Maldives would have a consolidated democracy. I wish for justice to be established. My wish is for the progress and prosperity of the people. And I thank you all for your support and contributions to achieve success for the past three years," President Nasheed said. Furthermore, President Nasheed did not want to use force to remain in power, as the former President Maumoon Gayoom did during his 30 years of dictatorial rule.  While it was speculated that India and/or Sri Lanka would offer their support to President Nasheed, allowing these countries to interfere in Maldivian politics would severely threaten national sovereignty.

Events unfolded rapidly to bring about President Nasheed’s resignation.
This follows a few weeks of coordinated protests led by the DRP, PPM, DQP, Jumhooree Party, and Adhaalath Party in response to Nasheed’s order to arrest Criminal Court Judge, Abdulla Mohammed.

Police and MNDF supporters quickly seized control of the media. The Maldives Media Council headquarters glass doors were shattered and swiftly boarded up. The national news channel, MNBC was swiftly reverted to TVM, it’s former name under Gayoom.

Gayoom supporters have also vandalized the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) gathering place, across from the Media Headquarters.

Gayoom supports were seen protesting throughout the day in Republic Square. Following the swearing in of President Mohammed Waheed Hassan Manik, the police forces were seen gathering in mass for a celebration rally.

Local media reported that one person has been killed and 59 people are being treated in Indhira Ghandi Memorial Hospital, although the full extent of the injuries is unknown at this time.

Currently, the MNDF are in control of the Presidential Palace and were seen pumping their firsts in victory at the gate mid-afternoon, where President Nasheed is supposedly being held. Police Commissioner Faseeh and Deputy Commissioner Atheef have resigned following their arrests, while Criminal Court Judge, Abdulla Mohammed, has been released from the “safe island” where he was being held by the MNDF. Meanwhile, the People’s Majilis and Supreme Court remained silent. This coordinated effort signals that the supporters from Gayoom’s era remain influential.

Although the coup has taken this peaceful island nation by surprise, the speed and organization behind the chain of events suggests extensive plotting by the opposition party supporters and possibly former Vice President and now President Mohammed Waheed Hassan Manik.

The Leader of the PPM, M.P. Abdulla Yamin Abdulla Gayoom, was openly promising 80 million MRF to the police if they joined in the opposition’s protests, according spectators in Male’. This is possible thanks to his half-brother, former dictator Maumoon Gayoom, as well as through ownership of tourist resorts and property in Male’. Furthermore, Yamin is reported to have appropriated 800 million USD from oil trade as the STO Chairman. Additionally, prominent businessman Gasim Ibrahim is rumored to have also promised 350,000 USD to bribe police and MNDF to join in Tuesday’s coup.

Former Vice President Waheed was previously affiliated with Gayoom’s dictatorship, then “jumped ship” to join with Nasheed as his supporters were gaining traction prior to the 2008 election.  He then aligned himself with the opposition protestors following Judge Abdulla’s arrest. His history of flip-flopping to gain political power is unscrupulous. However, his statement addressing the nation prior to President Nasheed’s forced resignation, when no other official government announcement had been made is incriminating. 

Earlier this week M.P. Yamin and Mamoon Gayoom left the Maldives, following the arrival of opposition leader Umar Naseer. Naseer’s message to the opposition was that President Nasheed could only be brought down by bloodshed.

These monetary incentives, combined with the strong sway former top-ranking police commanders still hold, and Waheed’s alleged – but likely – connection with Gayoom, created the perfect storm for subverting the fledgling democratic processes in the Maldives.

Widespread chaos and violence have thus far been avoided in Male’ and the overall atmosphere in remains surprisingly quiet. President Nasheed’s supports in Male’ were in a state of shock and disbelief as events unfolded Tuesday. However, the risk of escalation remains, particularly on rural islands, where MDP support remains high.

Many questions remain as this drama unfolds in the Maldives. What will be the response from Nasheed’s supporters? Will the MDP organize protests in response to today’s coup? Can violence be avoided during this precarious power shift?  Will democracy be restored? Will President Waheed maintain the social protections established under President Nasheed? Will the international community come out in opposition to the police seizing of power from President Nasheed or support the new regime?

President Nasheed successfully enacted many social protections during his 4 years in office. This social safety net has vastly improved quality of life throughout the Maldives, particularly in the rural atolls.  As promised, he has created: 1) a national health scheme; 2) a national transportation system; 3) monthly pensions of 2,000 MRF to senior citizens 65 years+, widows, those with adopted children, and the disabled; 4) housing (flats) for the homeless; 5) drug prevention and treatment to counter the drug trade Gayoom perpetuated (which kept many youth oppressed through addiction and fueled local mafia contingents throughout the nation); 6) reformed the economic system to achieve transparency and accountability – particularly regarding taxes and having a program budget – by implementing IMF recommendations; 7) enabled democratic rights and freedoms, including free speech and assembly. 

What today’s events do demonstrate is the need for transitional justice immediately following a democratic transition.  Gayoom supporters remain in power throughout many government institutions, including the People’s Majilis and Judiciary. Gayoom is known to conduct legal training secessions for Supreme Court members. Thorough vetting did not take place to protect the rule of law during this fragile transitional period.

These events have dealt a severe blow to the burgeoning democracy in the Maldives, which was only established in 2008. Additionally, the moderate brand of Islam, in this entirely Muslim country, is now under threat from a small number of opposition leaders who take a more conservative stance. 

The Maldives is a small island nation of approximately 385,000 people spread over 1,190 coral atoll islands. The Maldives is known for its idyllic beauty, drawing luxury tourists from all over the world.

In recent years the country has gained notoriety for its international leadership seeking climate justice.  The Maldives is extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts, as 80% of the islands are less than 1 meter (3 feet) above sea level and have already been suffering impacts from changing weather patterns and coastal erosion.

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